The fifth-generation mobile standard known as 5G will not only
bring significant benefits like much faster data speeds and
increased connectivity, it will also be the first all-inclusive
cellular network able to accommodate three distinct types of use
cases, ranging from very basic to the cutting edge. Many of these
use cases operated historically on different networks, creating
challenges in achieving economies of scale, according to a recent
IHS Markit webinar on 5G.
The comprehensive, wide-ranging nature of 5G is also why its
implementation presents specific hurdles on network infrastructure
and end-device design not encountered with the predecessor 4G LTE
technology.
The “one network” feature is of critical importance in 5G, which
IHS Markit defines as coinciding with the commercial rollout of
networks and devices compliant with Release 15 of NR Phase 1
specifications from the 3GPP, the standards body that develops
protocols for mobile telephony.
Some key characteristics of 5G Release 15 include a
non-standalone mode of operation utilizing LTE core and LTE as an
anchor carrier; specific component carrier bandwidths as they
relate to the 6-gigahertz (GHz) dividing line of spectrum for
optimal 5G use; and support for mobile features like carrier
aggregation and beamforming.
The ability of 5G to support three divergent types of use cases
within a single network architecture is remarkable because the use
cases at times involve contradictory technical requirements. The
use cases range from immersive mobile broadband VR experiences with
zero delay; to low-bandwidth applications of dense Internet of
Things (IoT) nodes; to leading-edge, mission-critical use cases
like remote vehicle operation or industrial manufacturing.
Exploring 5G use cases
The three types of use cases in 5G are enhanced mobile broadband
(eMBB) and fixed wireless access (FWA), Massive IoT, and
mission-critical applications.
In the first use case, 5G can improve the data experience of
those on the move with eMBB while also enabling capacity peak data
rates for the home through FWA. Mostly consumer driven involving
smartphones and laptops, both eMBB and FWA can be used for smart
home applications, mobile viewing of ultra-high-definition (UHD)
content, augmented and virtual reality, and cloud-based
experiences.
The second use case for 5G involves the phenomenon of Massive
IoT, characterized by deep and dense coverage of up to 1 million
connections within a square kilometer; support of connected devices
with long battery life of 10 years or more; and transmission of low
rates of data that are not delay sensitive via machine-type
communications (MTC). Massive IoT applications include sensors that
support smart buildings, smart agriculture, smart cities, and
transport and logistics.
In the third use case, 5G will be indispensable to
mission-critical applications involving ultra-reliable low-latency
communications (URLLC), where no delays can be tolerated and where
high security standards are required. A network failure in
mission-critical apps could lead to catastrophic consequences. Use
cases include autonomous cars, digital health and remote medical
surgery, robots and drones, and industrial automation.
Overall, the three types of use cases involve varying
requirements, depending on their function and technical
specifications, adding to the difficulty and complexity of
deploying 5G. Home and mobile broadband, for instance, call for
higher performance, while low-power consumption and cost are the
foremost issues in IoT applications. For mission-critical apps,
meanwhile, low latency and safeguarding security are the most
important considerations.
For this year, any 5G network rollouts will largely focus on the
eMBB element of 5G, which in many ways is an extension of the
capabilities that already exist in 4G LTE and LTE Advanced.
Meanwhile, the wider range of 5G capabilities, including URLLC and
Massive IoT, won’t be available just yet but will unfold instead in
a phased approach that could take a few years.
5G market prospects
The projected installed base of 5G in its first five years of
launch will be much larger than that of 4G over the same time. By
2023 or Year 5, subscribers to 5G will reach 1.3 billion, up
substantially from a low starting base in 2019, the first year of
5G rollouts.
The two largest markets will be North America and Asia Pacific.
However, beginning on the fourth year in 2022, Asia Pacific will
surpass North America in 5G rollouts, as shown in the graphic
below, thanks to massive deployment of 5G technology in China and
India. The so-called “golden year” will be 2023, when 5G will be
present in most handsets.
Average revenue per user (ARPU) will also be markedly higher in 5G,
forecast to reach $50-70 a month in the US and Australia. In
comparison, blended ARPU for voice and data was relatively flat in
the first few years of 4G LTE use.
The early years of 5G will see eMBB leading in deployment.
However, operators are likely to come up with customized 5G pricing
plans, depending on the requirements of each use case. Examples of
use cases that lend to customization include the real-time
streaming of games and the viewing of high-definition or
ultra-high-definition content.
Network architecture
The deployment of eMBB in the initial stages of 5G entails using
the same core that runs 4G LTE. At the same time, the end-to-end
architecture of 5G is being designed—a tough undertaking
because critical-type communications are involved, and every access
point added to the 5G network must be secure.
The 5G “one network” capability also presents challenges of its
own. The vision of one network handling and managing several
networks is appealing in its elegant simplicity, but the steps
needed to achieve such a vision are complex and manifold, requiring
extensive time and resources to develop and implement.
The inherent service-based concept is the fundamental difference
between the new 3GPP 5G system architecture and that of previous
generations. This means that 5G architecture is designed entirely
to address all services related to its three principal use cases
with utmost software-based agility. The approach is a departure
from that seen in traditional network architecture, which is built
with specific network elements or nodes that are mostly
proprietary.
Instead, the 5G architecture elements are defined as network
functions that offer their services via interfaces of a common
framework to any network functions that are permitted to make use
of these provided services. The starting point is the network
repository functions (NRF), which allow every network function to
discover the services offered by other network functions. This
architecture model features modularity, reusability, and the
self-containment of network functions while also using the latest
virtualization and software technologies.
5G device readiness
Devices capable of utilizing 5G will be ready for use almost as
soon as the technology becomes available, signaling the advanced
state of readiness of the market. Unlike 4G, which had only three
smartphones during the first year of launch, 5G can boast of at
least 20 smartphone designs available for release to the market
this year.
In North America, the first 5G device is Motorola’s 5G Moto Mod,
which connects to the Motorola Z3. The Z3 smartphone is an
unassuming 4G handset, but it was selected as the first 5G offering
by Motorola because it can be customized with “mods.” By connecting
to the 5G Mod, the Moto Z3/5G is, in effect, a conventional 4G LTE
device able to access 5G’s so-called millimeter wave (mmWave)
capability—the band of spectrum where implementations of 5G
will produce the most dramatic results.
The Motorola device notwithstanding, the first true integrated
5G solution is Samsung’s Galaxy S10, available in Europe and Asia.
In Europe, meanwhile, UK operator EE launched at the end of May its
5G network and the OnePlus 7Pro 5G.
With speeds theoretically as high as 5 gigabits or more per
second, mmWave technology delivers extremely fast data rates,
compared to just 100-200 megabits per second for existing 4G LTE
services. On the downside, mmWave coverage and range are
constrained to distances of approximately one city block, and the
tiny wavelength of mmWave makes the wireless signals hard to pick
up but easy to block with obstacles. These characteristics make it
challenging to build a radio frequency (RF) front to discern clear
signals out of the low-propagation mmWave.
The 5G Mod and other mmWave smartphones, including the Samsung
Galaxy S10 5G for Verizon, address this issue by integrating three
or four separate millimeter-antenna modules that are strategically
placed throughout the device to create spatial diversity, improve
reception, and mitigate interference. This compares to just one
antenna in most smartphone designs.
But such a solution drives up costs considerably, as each module
includes its own RF path, complete with a phase antenna array,
power amplifiers, power-management chip, and RF transceiver. At
$18.80 apiece for each module, the four modules in the 5G Mod add
up to a total of $75.20—three times the cost of the RF
subsystem in 4G smartphones.
The modem and RF front end are competitive spaces in 5G device
readiness, with various players pitching their own 5G offerings on
the market. The players include Qualcomm, which was first-to-market
with its Snapdragon x50 modem; Samsung and its Exynos 5100, used in
Samsung’s own Galaxy line of smartphones; Intel and the XM M8160,
which can be found in computers as well as in Tesla’s Model 3 car;
MediaTek’s M70, a system-on-chip solution from the Taiwanese maker
that won’t be available until next year; Qualcomm and the x55, its
second-generation modem; and UNISoC with its IVY510, a low-cost
solution from the Taiwanese maker formerly known as Spreadtrum,
whose modem is aimed primarily at the Chinese market.
A seventh player is China’s HiSilicon and its Belong 5000.
HiSilicon is fully owned by Huawei, and its modem is a captive
solution for use in the Huawei Mate 20X, like how the Samsung
Exynos 5100 is used solely for Samsung’s Galaxy smartphones. Given
the geopolitical issues affecting Huawei, however, the Huawei
phones with 5G modems may not be available for use outside China
for some time.
IHS Markit Technology Expert
With contributions from
Francis Sideco, Bill
Morelli,
Elias Aravantinos, Stéphane
Téral, and Wayne
Lam
Posted 13 June 2019