Below is a day by day visualization of COVID–19 spread by county, across the United States. It highlights the regional implications this crisis will have for many things, including marketing mix and other business decision models. Regional dynamics will be critical in making sound marketing resource allocation and business decisions in the next 1-2 years.
New Baselines Will Be Needed for Marketing Mix Modeling and All Econometric Models
As an industry, we will need to train our models to capture the new normal or “normals” as they become apparent. We will need to move away from models that use 2-3 year averages and be sensitive to the tectonic shifts in basic behaviors such as human movement, willingness to resume life as normal, and shifts in media usage.
TVP and Dynamic Linear Models Should Be Explored
Two years ago developing Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) with Time Vary Parameters (TVP) as a focused response to rapidly shifting digital media. Now it seems use of this kind of model will become the rule and not the exception for the analysis of #marketing mix, #pricing, and #promotions. Using these methods, in conjunction with hierarchical Bayesian modeling, businesses will be able to get timely and reliable results at the MSA and DMA levels to measure localized impact on businesses due to the pandemic – both around the peak and around containment and then over time.
Outputs Will Be Needed By Clients at the Regional Level
In the post coronavirus / #pcv world, businesses will need up to date and timely measurement on the effectiveness of different media on different distribution channels by region. Why? Because the impacts of the virus and the effects on economic activity will vary by region.
Now is the Time to Get your Business Decision Analytics Engines Ready for a #PCV World
Now is a time of change, and at a minimum, all clients that are using marketing mix and other kinds of econometric modeling will need to look for new ways to handle their data. The averages of before, will not be applicable and new approaches will be needed to account for the dramatic shifts in spending patterns, consumer needs and priorities, and media strategies that both brands and consumers are struggling with during this time of unprecedented upheaval.
This article was originally published by in4mation insights.
