Derek Jeter is a lock for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2020. But what Tigers are on the ballot?
Ryan Ford, Detroit Free Press
The newest members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced Tuesday. This year, Mariano Rivera, Edgar Martinez and Roy Halliday are expected to get the needed 75 percent of Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballots cast, with Mike Mussina having an outside shot as well. (Harold Baines and Lee Smith were named to the Class of 2019 by the Today’s Game Era Committee in December.) So who’s on the ballot for 2020? Free Press sports writer Ryan Ford takes a look at some notable first-timers on next year’s BBWAA ballot:
Related: Baseball Hall of Fame: 2019, finally, should be Edgar Martinez’s year
The lock: Derek Jeter
Team: New York Yankees.
Seasons: 20.
Key stats: 3,465 hits, 260 home runs, 544 doubles, .310 batting average.
The buzz: The Hall probably could have saved everyone the wait and inducted him the second he retired. The Kalamazoo product, who spent his entire career in New York, was the AL Rookie of the Year, a 14-time AL All-Star, a 5-time Gold Glove winner, a 5-time Silver Slugger, a World Series MVP and an All-Star Game MVP. About the only thing he didn’t win as a Yankee was an AL MVP award, though he finished in the top 10 in voting eight times. (He came closest in 2006, when he finished second to Justin Morneau despite hitting .343 with 34 steals.) The big question is whether he will be elected unanimously. He won’t, though – his diminished defense in the later years of his career and his rocky tenure as owner of the Miami Marlins will be enough to knock him off at least one ballot, deservedly or not.
The longshot: Cliff Lee
Teams:Cleveland Indians, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers.
Seasons: 13.
Key stats: 143-91, 3.52 ERA, 1,824 strikeouts, 2,156 2/3 innings, 29 CG, 1.196 WHIP.
The buzz: It seems like there’s a candidate for the Hall’s “Sandy Koufax Exemption,” which is code for “He was great, but not for long enough.” Lee’s career is longer than you might think; he was, after all, traded to Cleveland as a prospect in Montreal’s final push for a playoff spot. Three seasons later, the Expos had moved to Washington. That was 14 years ago. (Of note: The star Lee was dealt for, Bartolo Colon, played for five years before the trade and still made 24 starts in 2018. He will not be applying for a Koufax Exemption, assuming he ever actually retires.) Lee seemingly appeared from nowhere, going from a 5.43 ERA in 2004 to fourth place in AL Cy Young voting in 2005. He tinkered with his command for two more years, and then, from 2008-13 — six seasons — he was dominant: a 2.89 ERA while averaging nearly 200 strikeouts and just 32 walks a year. He won the AL Cy Young in 2008, and wasn’t far from winning it in the NL in 2011. And then, as quickly as he found it, it disappeared. Injuries limited him to 81 1/3 innings in 2014, and then he was done at age 35. Seven great seasons, spread over nine years. That’s probably not enough to get the Koufax Exemption, but he’ll get his fair share of votes.
The trailblazer: Bobby Abreu
Teams: Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets.
Seasons: 18.
Key stats: 2,470 hits, 288 home runs, 400 steals, .291 average, .395 on-base percentage.
Derby homers go really far, really fast.
The buzz: Abreu wasn’t the first great hitter from Venezuela in the modern era — that would be Andres Galarraga. Nor was he the best ever — Miguel Cabrera will almost certainly hold that title for a few years. But Abreu set a standard for modern Venezualan sluggers with a Moneyball-era mix of power, speed and batting eye. The Astros left him unprotected in the 1997 expansion draft and Tampa Bay pounced on him with the sixth pick, only to deal him to Philly immediately for veteran shortstop Kevin Stocker. Given a full-time spot in right field by the Phillies in 1999, Abreu averaged 22 home runs and 29 steals a season and posted a .416 on-base percentage over the next nine seasons. He even got to shine on the national stage in Detroit, setting a Home Run Derby record with 41 homers at Comerica Park in 2005. Even in his final seasons, moving from big market to big market as his contact ability declined, Abreu maintained his batting eye, consistently posting OBPs that were 80-100 points higher than his batting average. His big stats don’t necessarily pop, but Abreu is one of just six players with 250 homers and 400 steals. Of the other five, three are already in the Hall (Craig Biggio, Rickey Henderson and Joe Morgan) and another would be if the stats were the only things being considered (Barry Bonds). (Bobby Bonds is the final member of the club.)
Five other guys you’ve heard of …
They’re not likely to stay on the ballot for more than a year, but let’s remember them anyway:
Josh Beckett: 138 wins and a 3.88 ERA are solid, but his case should be built around his postseason star turns, especially with a 1.16 ERA in the World Series.
Adam Dunn: To borrow a phrase, he was the King of the Three True Outcomes; 49.9 percent of his 8,328 plate appearances resulted in a home run (462), a walk (1,317) or a strikeout (2,379).
Jason Giambi: The Moneyball posterboy (.399 OBP, .516 SLG) was also the posterboy of baseball’s PED wars in the mid-2000s.
Raul Ibanez: Played until he was 42, but his slow start as a 20-something hurts – 193 hits before age 30, 1,841 after.
Paul Konerko: Consistently good (.279/.354/.486) over 18 seasons, but rarely great (just two seasons with a WAR above 4).
The Tigers
Proper journalistic (and search-engine-optimization) ethics require me to mention the four former Tigers in their first year of eligibility:
Kyle Farnsworth: The hot-headed reliever had two stints in Detroit — one good (2.32 ERA in 2005), one bad (6.75 ERA in 16 innings in 2008).
Carlos Pena: He found his power stroke elsewhere after suffering through the Tigers’ leanest years from 2002-05.
Brad Penny: He went 11-11 in 181 2/3 innings with a 5.30 ERA in his 2011 stint in Detroit, but only cost the Tigers $3 million. Seems fair.
Jose Valverde: The closer had an epic nickname (Papa Grande, aka Big Potato!), an epic 2011 season (49-for-49 in save opportunities) and an epic flameout (5.59 ERA in 19 1/3 innings in 2013) before being released.