Following the
new withdrawal agreement reached between the United Kingdom and the European
Union on 17 October, it seemed that until very recently, Brexit would finally
happen by the 31 October deadline. However, just a few days later, the prospect
of another extension has become a reality. This would be the fourth extension
since March 2019, with the Brexit drama looking ever more like a scene from
“Groundhog Day,” – an endless cycle, and one whose outcome becomes less clear
as the days go by.
In
September 2019, when the 31 October still seemed to be a plausible deadline for
Brexit, Kantar conducted two pieces of research to better understand public perceptions of Brexit. Le
Centre Kantar sur le Futur de l’Europe and Kantar’s International Election Team
looked at European attitudes towards Brexit in six EU countries (France,
Germany, Poland, Ireland, the Netherlands and Spain) via an online survey
conducted among a representative sample of the population aged 18 or older in
each country.
In
parallel, an innovative approach was put in place to analyse the views of British citizens living in the EU (“expats”) on Brexit. British people
aged 18 or older living in six EU countries were recruited via advertisements posted
on Facebook and Instagram.
Brexit: a negative thing with damaging consequences
for the EU
One of the
main findings of the research is an apparent paradox; while a large majority
believe that Brexit is a ‘bad thing’ in most EU countries, in all six EU
countries, large proportions of citizens believe that the EU should not allow
any further extension of the Brexit deadline.
Indeed, more
than half of citizens in all countries surveyed – except France (40%) –
believed that Brexit was a ‘somewhat bad’ or a ‘very bad’ thing, with this
total being expressed by close to three-quarters of Germans (74%) and the Irish
(73%), and over two-thirds of Spaniards (68%).
Europeans
are firmly convinced that, in the case of a no-deal Brexit, British people and
the United Kingdom will be worse off than the EU, their country, or themselves.
Further,
most Europeans think that Brexit will also have damaging consequences for the
EU with more than two-thirds of Spaniards (68%) and around half of Dutch (53%),
German (52%) and Irish (46%) citizens believing the European Union will be
worse off as a result of a no-deal Brexit.
Negative
personal consequences are mentioned less often by European citizens. Except
Irish people (50%), only a third or less of people among the five other
countries thought a no-deal Brexit would result in them personally being worse
off. British ‘expats’ are far less positive and much more concerned for the
personal consequences of a no-deal – 70% of them said that the impact of
no-deal will be negative for them. In contrast, British ‘expats’ are
interestingly much more concerned than the British citizens living in the UK
only 31% of whom believe that a no-deal on 31 October would have a fairly or
very negative impact on them personally. This is far less than for Irish
citizens (50%)!
European citizens would however like to reach a
conclusion soon
Despite
their fears of the negative consequences, Europeans want to move on. A majority
of Europeans surveyed at the end of September thought that the EU should not
allow any further extension of the deadline. This was the case for two-thirds
of Germans and majorities of the citizens in all countries except the
Netherlands (47%). These results may be seen as “Brexit fatigue” with citizens
now impatient that the whole process ends and perhaps, for some citizens, the
feeling that they would prefer it over and done with, even if that means a
no-deal exit.
European
citizens are additionally more likely to agree with the statement that the EU
should leave it up to the UK to make a decision on the given options, rather
than say that the EU should offer the UK a renegotiation to make it more
workable for the UK.
This is
particularly the case in the Netherlands, Spain, Germany and France where the
gap between the two answers is the greatest. Indeed, whilst for example 67% of
Spaniards think that the EU should leave it up to the UK to decide, only 45% of
them think that the EU should offer the UK a new deal to make it more workable
for the UK.
A never-ending process
At the end
of September 2019, a majority of Europeans still thought that the UK would
leave the EU on 31 October. Indeed, except in Germany where a majority thought
the UK would not leave (49% against 38% Leave), in all other five countries surveyed,
between 44% and 56% of citizens believed that the UK would leave the EU on that
date, albeit with the important caveat that the majority holding this opinion
affirm that such an exit would be without a deal.
Prognostics
were, however, quite tight, revealing the uncertainty of the situation. Yet, it
is worth noting that a majority of British ‘expats’ (45% against 39%) believed
on the contrary that it was unlikely that the UK would leave the EU by that
date, even if a majority of them (51%) thought that the likeliest conclusion to
Brexit, regardless of when it finally occurs, is the UK leaving the EU without
a deal.
A positive consequence: European unity?
This
research also reveals unity between the six European countries surveyed, and
their desire to continue to pursue and support the European project, regardless
of whether the UK is a part of that or not. This sentiment is felt to such an
extent in certain countries, primarily Germany and Spain, that people express a
desire for a referendum on EU membership, so as to be able to demonstrate their
support for the EU.
45% of
Germans and 40% of Spaniards are in favour of a referendum of their country’s
EU membership, the two highest scores in the six countries surveyed. However,
when asked how they would vote in such a referendum, 75% of Germans state that
they would vote to remain, against only 17% for leave, whilst 72% of Spaniards
would choose to remain and only 13% to leave. Furthermore, even France (52%
remain, 24% leave) and the Netherlands (60% remain, 19% leave), the two
countries ‘least favourable’ to remaining in the EU, still have overwhelming
majorities in favour of remaining, whilst in the other four countries surveyed
over 70% of voters would opt for remain and only 17% or less would choose to
leave.
Interestingly,
if there was another referendum, 78% of British ‘expats’ would vote to remain
in the EU while 18% would vote to leave. This difference is mostly due to
British ‘expats’ who did not vote in 2016 and who now say that they would vote
remain in a large majority. The uncertainty remains as to whether they would
indeed vote to impact the overall result of a second referendum, which in any
case seems now to be rather unlikely.
For more information about these studies, please visit kantar.com/public or contact ElectionTeam@kantar.com